* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 47 50 51 47 48 49 49 44 40 41 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 42 47 50 51 47 48 49 49 44 40 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 30 30 32 35 39 43 44 43 42 41 38 35 33 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 8 6 15 26 30 36 33 35 34 34 30 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 0 2 -4 1 7 3 8 5 0 3 1 6 5 0 SHEAR DIR 75 54 50 56 62 70 201 264 282 294 289 311 298 302 305 309 321 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.2 26.3 26.7 26.5 26.1 26.9 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 122 117 118 122 119 115 124 132 134 134 128 123 124 123 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 117 112 112 114 110 106 113 118 116 114 108 101 103 105 108 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 68 68 70 69 64 66 67 66 60 57 58 55 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 18 18 17 16 16 15 12 13 15 16 16 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 109 110 124 125 112 99 77 53 42 -9 -50 -87 -88 -45 -29 -12 18 200 MB DIV -4 15 4 27 17 -25 -5 0 33 5 26 16 -11 -8 -19 -32 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 0 0 9 16 23 18 32 15 8 2 -7 -11 -13 LAND (KM) 1207 1340 1472 1626 1779 2001 2205 2348 2456 2457 2221 2109 2139 2177 2245 2289 2126 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 19.3 20.4 22.1 24.2 26.4 28.6 30.0 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.8 31.0 32.4 33.8 36.1 38.2 39.7 41.2 42.2 42.4 41.6 39.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 12 11 12 12 11 9 8 6 2 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 2 2 6 6 0 6 22 12 15 8 6 6 4 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -3. -7. -11. -17. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -12. -10. -9. -9. -9. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 20. 21. 17. 18. 19. 19. 14. 10. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 28.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 13.2% 10.0% 7.7% 6.3% 9.2% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 3.7% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.7% 4.0% 2.8% 2.2% 3.5% 4.5% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 42 47 50 51 47 48 49 49 44 40 41 44 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 40 45 48 49 45 46 47 47 42 38 39 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 41 44 45 41 42 43 43 38 34 35 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 33 36 37 33 34 35 35 30 26 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT