* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 41 44 50 56 63 65 65 64 63 59 61 57 58 56 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 41 44 50 56 63 65 65 64 63 59 61 57 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 40 42 49 55 61 65 64 63 61 58 54 50 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 0 2 3 6 9 9 4 9 13 22 24 39 34 40 47 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 0 1 -2 -4 -1 4 5 4 8 -3 -3 -4 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 355 56 150 111 76 72 92 144 272 277 279 278 286 277 290 287 336 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.0 27.1 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 130 126 128 123 123 122 118 114 126 134 135 134 134 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 126 122 123 118 116 114 109 105 115 121 117 112 112 112 112 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 66 67 63 68 65 65 61 60 56 48 48 43 32 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 17 17 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 111 124 121 122 120 117 90 78 63 67 49 12 -17 19 0 -51 -97 200 MB DIV 5 7 -2 11 11 25 0 0 3 32 10 32 8 21 -49 -48 -71 700-850 TADV 5 5 0 0 3 1 2 2 11 16 18 16 12 -8 -22 -24 -23 LAND (KM) 736 882 1027 1172 1316 1613 1888 2121 2278 2285 2369 2414 2124 2011 2035 2037 1974 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.9 22.3 24.1 26.3 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.6 32.3 34.9 37.3 39.3 41.1 42.7 43.8 44.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 11 12 13 10 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 10 10 13 6 6 9 1 0 11 14 21 18 14 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 1. -3. -8. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -10. -9. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 21. 28. 30. 30. 29. 28. 24. 26. 22. 23. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.3 24.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.99 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 19.1% 14.1% 11.1% 9.9% 12.1% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 11.4% 6.0% 1.5% 0.7% 4.3% 6.5% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% Consensus: 3.2% 11.7% 7.0% 4.2% 3.6% 5.6% 6.7% 3.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 41 44 50 56 63 65 65 64 63 59 61 57 58 56 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 41 47 53 60 62 62 61 60 56 58 54 55 53 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 43 49 56 58 58 57 56 52 54 50 51 49 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 40 47 49 49 48 47 43 45 41 42 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT