* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 49 56 62 67 70 71 70 65 62 62 61 65 68 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 49 56 62 67 70 71 70 65 62 62 61 65 68 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 48 55 62 68 71 72 69 65 62 59 56 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 2 5 6 9 14 9 7 9 18 25 32 26 34 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -2 0 -4 -7 0 7 6 6 2 3 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 15 94 124 111 61 94 133 203 251 255 285 283 283 266 270 292 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.0 26.8 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 130 127 124 123 124 121 114 122 128 134 136 135 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 123 126 123 119 118 117 113 105 112 116 120 117 114 112 112 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 68 67 65 65 65 65 60 57 60 60 58 57 45 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 19 18 17 17 17 17 14 14 16 18 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 99 107 126 122 121 125 93 85 64 64 63 12 -12 -44 -10 22 31 200 MB DIV 24 14 21 18 11 -4 12 -16 5 4 11 -1 13 28 20 11 -27 700-850 TADV 4 5 6 0 0 2 3 2 11 18 28 13 22 13 -5 -22 -24 LAND (KM) 596 731 866 1017 1167 1472 1765 2026 2239 2247 2279 2401 2300 2089 1973 1969 2063 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.5 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.4 22.9 24.8 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.9 24.1 25.4 26.8 28.2 31.0 33.7 36.3 38.5 40.4 42.2 43.5 44.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 11 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 8 10 10 11 4 7 7 0 5 12 12 23 15 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. -11. -8. -6. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 36. 35. 30. 27. 27. 26. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.1 22.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 20.3% 14.9% 11.7% 10.3% 12.6% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 28.5% 16.6% 6.2% 3.9% 11.8% 10.6% 19.6% Bayesian: 1.4% 10.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% 1.5% 2.4% 2.0% Consensus: 4.6% 19.7% 11.2% 6.1% 4.8% 8.6% 8.8% 7.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 46 49 56 62 67 70 71 70 65 62 62 61 65 68 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 44 51 57 62 65 66 65 60 57 57 56 60 63 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 45 51 56 59 60 59 54 51 51 50 54 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 41 46 49 50 49 44 41 41 40 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT