* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 49 56 62 67 71 72 69 69 71 71 70 75 75 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 49 56 62 67 71 72 69 69 71 71 70 75 75 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 54 62 67 71 73 72 70 70 69 69 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 1 2 6 10 15 11 8 4 6 11 7 17 18 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 0 -1 -7 -5 -2 7 8 8 8 7 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 271 317 332 64 111 84 82 103 125 270 270 303 325 319 305 303 284 SST (C) 27.9 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.2 26.8 27.4 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 129 128 128 130 127 123 124 124 122 116 122 128 133 133 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 125 123 123 126 122 117 117 116 113 106 110 115 118 114 111 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 69 68 66 63 65 63 62 58 60 60 66 63 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 17 18 18 17 17 17 13 13 14 15 15 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 99 101 106 124 122 105 102 88 64 55 62 39 0 -19 -19 -2 -61 200 MB DIV 28 24 4 15 -4 -3 15 -3 1 1 32 17 22 25 45 9 -13 700-850 TADV 2 5 5 6 1 2 0 5 1 10 12 14 5 17 14 0 -3 LAND (KM) 466 612 757 899 1040 1362 1655 1925 2162 2190 2176 2213 2275 2286 2240 2136 2136 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.0 20.1 21.3 22.6 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.7 23.1 24.4 25.7 27.0 30.0 32.7 35.2 37.6 39.6 41.4 42.9 44.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 7 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 8 9 12 6 6 9 4 0 5 13 13 12 19 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 32. 36. 37. 34. 34. 36. 36. 35. 40. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 21.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.99 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.56 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 22.5% 15.8% 12.4% 10.9% 13.1% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 25.7% 15.1% 4.5% 2.5% 11.1% 13.6% 18.8% Bayesian: 2.2% 19.3% 4.8% 0.7% 0.5% 4.5% 3.7% 2.6% Consensus: 5.3% 22.5% 11.9% 5.9% 4.6% 9.6% 10.3% 7.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 46 49 56 62 67 71 72 69 69 71 71 70 75 75 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 44 51 57 62 66 67 64 64 66 66 65 70 70 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 45 51 56 60 61 58 58 60 60 59 64 64 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 41 46 50 51 48 48 50 50 49 54 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT