* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182020 09/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 44 50 55 58 59 61 63 64 61 61 60 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 44 50 55 58 59 61 63 64 61 61 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 49 54 58 62 64 65 65 65 65 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 8 9 14 11 10 2 7 6 10 15 30 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 2 4 -3 -2 -3 -3 1 6 2 2 2 2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 360 311 308 319 76 127 77 75 106 160 195 208 240 253 278 268 277 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 130 129 129 129 128 123 125 123 121 117 128 131 133 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 125 125 125 126 124 117 117 114 112 108 115 116 116 115 115 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 76 71 71 72 71 69 65 65 65 63 58 56 56 59 57 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 10 9 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 91 85 83 97 114 109 101 87 70 61 59 52 11 2 -32 -37 -31 200 MB DIV 36 27 15 5 22 6 -12 20 -18 13 35 33 21 24 13 3 -11 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 7 9 3 4 2 1 5 9 11 4 13 16 8 4 LAND (KM) 352 482 612 753 893 1206 1509 1803 2066 2197 2167 2172 2243 2293 2346 2207 2060 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.4 21.7 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.7 21.9 23.1 24.4 25.7 28.6 31.4 34.1 36.6 38.6 40.3 42.1 43.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 11 10 10 11 10 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 9 9 10 12 14 5 7 8 3 1 10 14 12 14 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -22. -22. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 31. 33. 34. 31. 31. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 20.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 EIGHTEEN 09/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.99 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 20.7% 15.0% 11.4% 9.9% 12.4% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 38.1% 24.0% 7.6% 4.4% 17.6% 24.2% 28.4% Bayesian: 2.2% 15.9% 3.5% 0.2% 0.4% 2.8% 9.0% 9.6% Consensus: 5.4% 24.9% 14.2% 6.4% 4.9% 10.9% 15.6% 12.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 EIGHTEEN 09/07/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 40 44 50 55 58 59 61 63 64 61 61 60 59 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 40 46 51 54 55 57 59 60 57 57 56 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 35 41 46 49 50 52 54 55 52 52 51 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 33 38 41 42 44 46 47 44 44 43 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT