* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 67 68 66 61 59 58 55 51 47 45 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 67 68 66 61 59 58 55 51 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 63 62 59 54 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 24 18 25 25 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 5 -2 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 229 244 266 269 267 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.0 19.3 18.3 17.2 16.6 15.7 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 80 76 73 71 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 74 71 68 66 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -58.1 -59.5 -60.4 -60.5 -61.1 -60.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 52 51 51 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 21 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 151 139 119 104 75 81 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 50 40 31 5 0 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 30 57 61 38 39 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1001 886 763 776 812 880 907 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.6 41.4 43.2 44.5 45.7 47.1 48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.8 19.6 18.5 18.6 18.6 19.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 20 16 12 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 35 CX,CY: 27/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -25. -28. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -15. -17. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.6 20.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/27/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 65 67 68 66 61 59 58 55 51 47 45 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 64 62 57 55 54 51 47 43 41 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 59 57 52 50 49 46 42 38 36 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 49 44 42 41 38 34 30 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT