* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL182017 10/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 46 42 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 46 42 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 42 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 46 54 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 220 216 217 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.3 26.6 25.0 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 135 128 114 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 137 130 111 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 159 230 236 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 139 173 134 120 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -61 -43 -51 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 130 405 276 365 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 30.4 33.2 36.9 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.9 76.5 74.2 71.4 68.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 35 39 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 27 CX,CY: 19/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -16. -26. -36. -44. -51. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -18. -25. -32. -40. -47. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.5 78.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.87 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 226.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 79.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 46 42 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 44 40 32 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 36 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT