* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182017 10/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 40 43 45 44 41 38 35 32 30 V (KT) LAND 30 32 30 37 38 42 43 42 40 37 34 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 29 33 33 31 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 19 24 33 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 10 13 10 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 247 230 217 223 216 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.2 28.7 28.5 26.4 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 159 151 149 125 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 170 171 157 149 149 125 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -52.6 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 6 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 58 55 50 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 39 55 68 91 171 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 104 109 120 92 98 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 5 4 2 -89 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 213 110 -20 80 174 492 575 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 21.5 23.0 24.7 26.4 30.9 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.9 82.7 81.5 80.0 78.4 74.0 67.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 19 20 22 26 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 36 98 37 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -14. -20. -25. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 14. 11. 8. 5. 2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.9 83.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.91 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.63 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 136.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 21.6% 13.9% 7.4% 5.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 12.2% 6.0% 2.4% 0.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 11.3% 6.6% 3.3% 2.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 30 37 38 42 43 42 40 37 34 31 28 18HR AGO 30 29 27 34 35 39 40 39 37 34 31 28 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 34 38 39 38 36 33 30 27 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 26 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT