* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OMAR AL152020 09/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 34 33 32 31 30 27 23 20 20 19 22 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 34 34 33 32 31 30 27 23 20 20 19 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 11 6 9 21 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -2 0 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 1 333 229 218 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 25.4 24.4 20.1 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 111 104 83 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 96 91 76 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 39 40 40 38 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -54 -64 -89 -106 -106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 4 28 35 48 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 1 13 0 -12 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 890 792 711 534 363 405 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.8 39.1 40.3 41.9 43.5 46.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.1 56.4 55.6 53.9 52.2 47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 20 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 14 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -7. -10. -10. -11. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.8 57.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152020 OMAR 09/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.4% 12.6% 10.3% 9.2% 9.1% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.5% 5.1% 3.6% 3.1% 3.1% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152020 OMAR 09/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152020 OMAR 09/05/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 34 34 33 32 31 30 27 23 20 20 19 22 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 33 33 32 31 30 29 26 22 19 19 18 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 29 28 27 26 25 22 18 15 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 22 21 20 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT