* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OMAR AL152020 09/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 34 34 35 35 34 33 31 27 25 24 24 26 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 34 34 35 35 34 33 31 27 25 24 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 19 13 7 9 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -3 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 26 14 2 224 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 25.2 24.5 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 133 109 104 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 108 111 94 90 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 41 41 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -48 -56 -66 -78 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 15 2 28 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -3 2 15 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 979 885 799 710 545 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.9 38.0 39.0 40.4 41.8 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.3 56.8 56.3 55.1 54.0 50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 14 17 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 23 14 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.9 57.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152020 OMAR 09/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.6% 11.2% 9.2% 8.0% 9.1% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.9% 4.5% 3.4% 2.7% 3.1% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152020 OMAR 09/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152020 OMAR 09/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 32 34 34 35 35 34 33 31 27 25 24 24 26 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 32 32 33 33 32 31 29 25 23 22 22 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 29 29 30 30 29 28 26 22 20 19 19 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 22 23 23 22 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT