* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OMAR AL152020 09/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 33 30 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 33 30 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 27 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 51 46 41 39 39 33 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 351 353 358 11 23 32 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 132 130 129 125 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 108 109 106 104 101 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 63 62 60 59 54 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -41 -18 -18 -26 -27 -40 -65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 0 7 -7 -28 24 -3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 18 15 10 6 6 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 830 872 923 979 1040 1085 1048 1045 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.3 36.2 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.9 36.5 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.9 61.8 60.6 59.6 58.6 57.3 56.4 55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 6 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 12 10 10 13 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. -1. -10. -19. -27. -35. -41. -47. -53. -58. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -15. -22. -29. -36. -43. -50. -57. -62. -64. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.3 62.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152020 OMAR 09/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152020 OMAR 09/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152020 OMAR 09/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 33 33 30 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT