* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152020 09/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 32 39 44 44 46 50 51 31 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -6 -3 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 306 324 332 327 323 328 333 345 3 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.4 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 139 142 136 136 130 133 128 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 118 119 114 114 108 109 106 103 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 62 63 65 65 62 57 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -26 -30 -43 -44 -59 -32 -22 -3 -31 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -3 -16 -26 -8 9 -3 3 -10 -5 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 20 22 16 16 7 13 15 10 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 223 312 428 548 603 634 712 809 880 904 780 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.4 37.2 37.6 37.7 37.9 38.6 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.8 72.4 71.0 69.6 68.3 65.4 62.2 59.7 57.1 54.7 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 37 32 52 40 35 18 23 19 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. -2. -15. -25. -32. -37. -44. -50. -57. -62. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -18. -25. -31. -37. -42. -48. -52. -54. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.4 73.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152020 FIFTEEN 09/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152020 FIFTEEN 09/01/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152020 FIFTEEN 09/01/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 31 29 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT