* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152020 09/01/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 26 22 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 26 22 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 19 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 25 32 38 45 48 54 52 40 27 25 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -7 -5 -7 -6 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 300 312 324 330 325 325 332 342 349 9 21 336 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.5 27.5 27.6 27.3 26.8 27.2 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 143 142 139 141 140 144 131 132 127 122 128 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 123 120 117 119 117 119 108 109 103 101 107 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 65 62 65 64 61 60 58 55 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 3 3 5 11 11 8 3 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -20 -20 -29 -44 -46 -36 -13 -1 0 -28 -44 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -13 9 0 -22 -9 1 14 -23 21 -4 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 7 18 20 13 25 22 25 11 13 14 10 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 174 241 331 439 553 610 672 670 794 834 825 674 576 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 34.4 34.9 35.3 35.7 36.7 37.5 38.2 38.3 38.6 39.3 40.7 42.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 73.6 72.2 70.9 69.6 67.0 64.3 61.7 58.7 56.4 54.5 51.9 48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 12 11 11 11 8 10 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 87 44 32 30 48 41 54 19 18 17 6 30 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. -2. -14. -26. -33. -39. -42. -43. -49. -54. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -4. 2. 2. -3. -10. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -8. -15. -23. -33. -31. -36. -40. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.8 75.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152020 FIFTEEN 09/01/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152020 FIFTEEN 09/01/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152020 FIFTEEN 09/01/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 31 30 26 22 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 29 25 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 25 21 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT