* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152020 09/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 30 27 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 30 27 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 31 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 23 28 32 43 47 53 45 31 29 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 0 -4 -2 -7 -3 -2 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 303 305 318 326 326 331 332 346 3 18 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.8 27.3 27.2 27.1 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 146 142 139 139 137 130 134 128 127 126 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 124 121 118 117 116 109 111 106 105 105 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 69 64 59 61 61 57 54 47 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -27 -13 -21 -34 -50 -54 -23 3 -10 -43 -77 -115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 -4 -8 16 -11 -19 15 -10 -6 -4 7 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 12 5 15 16 14 13 10 1 5 2 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 209 195 231 308 415 629 651 702 795 840 845 729 638 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.5 34.1 34.6 35.1 36.0 36.9 37.7 38.1 38.5 39.1 40.3 42.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.2 75.1 74.0 72.6 71.2 68.6 65.6 62.2 59.3 56.5 53.8 51.1 48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 12 13 13 11 11 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 82 59 32 26 44 29 17 25 18 10 26 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 0. -10. -20. -28. -35. -40. -43. -49. -54. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -8. -15. -22. -25. -32. -37. -42. -45. -45. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.8 76.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152020 FIFTEEN 09/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 13.8% 10.1% 7.7% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 3.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.8% 4.0% 2.8% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152020 FIFTEEN 09/01/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152020 FIFTEEN 09/01/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 32 30 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT