* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152020 08/31/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 34 32 31 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 34 32 31 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 33 32 31 28 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 16 19 29 36 42 46 55 52 46 29 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 -1 -5 -4 -6 -6 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 294 296 293 315 327 328 326 337 354 9 30 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.7 26.9 27.2 23.8 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 166 163 155 148 142 141 136 134 124 128 98 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 138 132 127 121 120 114 112 105 106 84 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 70 67 59 60 61 60 55 52 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -9 -19 -18 -19 -55 -54 -63 -35 -20 -62 -94 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 27 -3 -23 5 -40 30 -13 4 -18 0 -19 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 24 13 8 29 17 34 34 16 11 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 216 192 133 177 257 546 585 639 741 783 723 618 582 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 63 74 73 39 62 41 25 21 11 28 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 1. -9. -21. -32. -39. -44. -48. -55. -60. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -8. -10. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 1. -3. -10. -20. -25. -32. -40. -46. -49. -50. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.2 76.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152020 FIFTEEN 08/31/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.8% 11.5% 9.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.3% 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.0% 4.7% 3.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152020 FIFTEEN 08/31/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152020 FIFTEEN 08/31/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 34 32 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 30 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 27 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT