* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 53 50 44 41 40 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 53 50 44 41 40 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 56 54 50 48 49 48 40 30 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 14 15 13 1 8 20 30 43 70 82 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 0 2 4 8 9 11 12 17 21 16 11 SHEAR DIR 301 302 289 308 336 287 223 207 220 217 227 237 250 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.4 26.5 26.1 23.5 19.3 17.0 14.6 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 110 110 111 118 122 120 102 86 80 77 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 92 90 90 92 100 106 109 95 82 77 74 73 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -49.8 -49.9 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.1 -48.7 -46.5 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 6 5 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 58 58 49 41 37 35 30 18 22 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 38 35 35 31 29 29 28 26 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 9 1 -11 1 32 53 69 79 39 19 35 26 200 MB DIV 26 31 8 -29 -25 20 3 41 44 25 -20 -32 -16 700-850 TADV 12 6 4 1 -3 12 0 -10 7 -84 -176 -282 -82 LAND (KM) 274 278 288 327 367 520 634 695 666 714 1395 870 107 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.3 35.7 36.0 36.3 36.6 37.0 38.3 40.7 44.0 47.9 51.4 54.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 72.8 72.7 72.2 71.7 69.6 66.2 60.9 53.8 44.8 34.1 22.9 11.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 7 11 18 26 34 40 41 39 37 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 0 0 0 3 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -11. -23. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -8. -12. -13. -15. -20. -31. -39. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -19. -20. -24. -37. -62. -87. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 34.9 73.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.72 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 292.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.6% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/27/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 56 53 50 44 41 40 36 23 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 54 51 45 42 41 37 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 50 44 41 40 36 23 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 41 38 37 33 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT