* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 102 105 104 103 96 89 83 76 63 53 46 V (KT) LAND 100 100 102 105 104 103 96 89 83 76 63 53 46 V (KT) LGEM 100 100 100 100 99 95 89 81 74 68 64 60 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 6 14 10 16 10 9 10 14 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 -3 2 3 1 -2 -3 5 6 4 SHEAR DIR 246 251 192 259 301 317 318 314 300 297 341 3 337 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 155 151 148 142 136 133 128 126 125 131 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 132 127 123 117 111 108 104 102 102 109 110 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -49.5 -49.8 -49.3 -49.3 -48.9 -49.5 -49.8 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.0 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 8 7 7 3 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 56 55 58 61 65 66 65 62 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 42 44 43 46 45 45 44 42 38 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 39 50 72 75 81 80 69 68 55 51 36 51 60 200 MB DIV 55 69 89 65 16 69 47 29 -3 31 -33 11 -7 700-850 TADV 14 16 9 8 10 18 21 16 8 -2 0 12 -3 LAND (KM) 752 741 728 672 616 519 428 361 311 295 344 498 693 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.3 29.0 29.6 30.1 31.1 32.1 32.9 33.6 34.3 34.9 35.4 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 72.7 72.9 73.0 73.0 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.3 73.0 72.2 70.4 67.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 34 29 22 16 18 15 10 6 22 19 25 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -15. -23. -31. -37. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -9. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 4. 3. -4. -11. -17. -24. -37. -47. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 27.5 72.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.42 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 547.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.40 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.1% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 10.1% 6.8% 4.7% 2.0% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 8.3% 6.3% 1.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/24/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 102 105 104 103 96 89 83 76 63 53 46 18HR AGO 100 99 101 104 103 102 95 88 82 75 62 52 45 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 98 97 90 83 77 70 57 47 40 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 88 81 74 68 61 48 38 31 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 73 66 60 53 40 30 23 IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 81 74 67 61 54 41 31 24 IN 12HR 100 100 102 93 87 83 76 69 63 56 43 33 26