* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 30 29 28 28 27 25 23 22 21 21 22 21 22 24 V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 31 30 35 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 233 235 225 233 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.4 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 169 171 171 171 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 145 156 169 171 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 10 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 51 51 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 32 30 25 12 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 24 19 30 18 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 19 11 11 12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 11 2 -54 -24 -61 -165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.3 90.1 90.9 92.0 93.0 95.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 36 31 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 33. 37. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -19. -25. -31. -35. -39. -43. -47. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.0 89.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/25/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT