* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 28 26 25 25 24 23 21 21 19 20 20 20 18 18 20 V (KT) LAND 35 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 27 30 32 36 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 216 235 234 227 242 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 30.0 30.8 31.2 32.0 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 169 172 171 171 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 146 163 170 171 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 9 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 49 50 51 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 20 24 29 -11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 48 26 4 14 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 10 18 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 66 0 -7 -36 -42 -116 -266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.6 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.6 89.4 90.1 91.3 92.4 94.6 97.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 33 38 20 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 33. 37. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -11. -17. -24. -29. -33. -37. -41. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -16. -15. -15. -15. -17. -17. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.7 88.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/24/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT