* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 39 37 37 35 35 35 35 34 35 35 34 32 32 34 V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 35 37 36 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 37 34 32 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 27 29 29 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 211 215 234 235 226 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.6 30.9 30.9 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 169 170 171 171 170 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 148 156 162 160 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 6 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 50 53 56 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 25 36 26 27 18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 43 50 20 14 22 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 11 13 19 10 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 128 55 36 -2 16 17 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.4 89.1 89.8 90.7 91.6 93.5 95.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 42 36 43 53 43 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. 29. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. -31. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -13. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.1 88.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 12.2% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/24/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 40 35 37 36 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 42 37 39 38 33 31 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 38 37 32 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 36 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT