* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 60 58 55 51 49 48 47 46 46 47 46 45 45 45 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 60 58 41 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 58 56 41 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 27 27 30 27 29 39 35 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 -2 -3 1 0 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 219 220 214 216 231 225 229 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 31.1 31.3 31.9 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 167 169 171 171 171 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 144 145 149 165 169 170 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 9 6 11 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 56 56 56 55 56 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 5 10 20 29 8 4 -15 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 32 6 31 41 15 29 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 25 11 10 10 7 10 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 331 227 123 49 21 -3 -38 -104 -154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.3 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.1 88.5 89.2 89.9 91.7 93.5 95.5 97.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 51 59 41 36 27 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. -26. -28. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.4 87.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 18.4% 12.9% 10.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 12.2% 7.8% 4.1% 2.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 10.2% 6.9% 4.9% 3.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/24/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 60 60 58 41 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 59 59 57 40 33 28 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 54 37 30 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 31 24 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT