* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 67 69 71 67 63 56 55 53 52 51 51 50 50 49 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 67 69 71 50 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 65 67 69 68 49 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 11 17 22 23 33 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 1 6 5 0 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 254 220 202 220 214 225 214 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.2 29.9 30.6 31.1 31.6 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 168 171 171 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 169 168 157 149 158 165 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 8 9 6 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 55 52 54 49 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 13 14 14 10 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 11 28 19 2 6 -11 2 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 40 69 51 31 21 9 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 20 6 14 29 13 18 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 191 291 391 341 218 41 -34 -109 -128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.2 25.1 26.2 27.2 28.9 29.9 30.7 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.2 87.6 88.0 88.4 89.7 91.3 92.8 94.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 50 54 50 53 39 21 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -9. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 7. 3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 23.2 86.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 18.1% 12.6% 10.5% 9.2% 11.2% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 14.1% 7.6% 5.6% 2.9% 4.4% 2.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 10.8% 6.8% 5.4% 4.0% 5.2% 3.8% 0.2% DTOPS: 6.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/23/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 65 67 69 71 50 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 62 64 66 68 47 32 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 60 62 41 26 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 54 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT