* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 66 71 77 83 86 78 69 63 57 53 51 51 52 53 51 V (KT) LAND 55 62 66 71 77 83 86 78 61 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 73 78 86 85 79 72 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 19 18 13 23 22 30 32 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 0 5 2 0 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 217 241 255 228 220 204 214 202 216 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.0 30.6 30.6 30.8 31.0 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 172 172 172 170 171 171 171 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 167 169 170 169 168 152 160 158 159 158 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 6 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 61 60 60 53 55 48 51 50 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 10 11 13 14 15 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 37 13 4 29 18 19 3 28 31 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 80 58 39 65 43 30 17 39 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 21 17 2 25 17 16 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 135 196 286 379 271 115 52 -2 -92 -134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.1 25.0 26.6 28.1 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.5 86.0 86.5 87.1 87.7 89.1 90.7 92.5 94.6 96.1 97.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 93 69 57 50 55 50 40 58 46 16 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. -3. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 12. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 16. 22. 28. 31. 23. 14. 8. 2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.4 85.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.3% 56.7% 37.1% 25.0% 14.8% 29.3% 21.8% 15.9% Logistic: 21.8% 50.6% 36.7% 24.4% 10.2% 18.3% 12.4% 3.2% Bayesian: 21.6% 37.2% 20.3% 23.5% 5.2% 2.9% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 22.6% 48.2% 31.4% 24.3% 10.1% 16.8% 11.8% 6.4% DTOPS: 7.0% 22.0% 12.0% 19.0% 5.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 9( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 66 71 77 83 86 78 61 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 58 63 69 75 78 70 53 33 24 20 19 19 19 19 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 62 68 71 63 46 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 57 60 52 35 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT