* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 50 57 61 66 63 59 53 51 48 48 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 50 57 61 66 63 59 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 53 58 62 65 64 60 42 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 14 18 13 24 21 29 30 24 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -4 -3 -2 0 2 1 -1 5 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 219 202 207 241 222 220 202 213 207 223 217 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.9 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 172 172 172 171 169 168 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 171 171 163 158 161 164 163 162 159 153 150 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 9 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 66 64 60 54 60 54 59 60 63 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 9 8 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 32 53 48 36 25 18 -12 34 -1 -17 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 39 49 67 62 49 53 29 14 29 21 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 3 14 -6 22 4 13 12 1 10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 239 174 85 16 52 247 423 278 139 6 -42 -121 -283 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.0 23.7 25.3 26.8 28.4 29.1 29.1 29.6 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.7 86.2 86.7 87.3 88.8 90.2 91.8 93.7 95.0 95.8 96.7 98.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 11 10 11 9 5 4 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 124 115 84 49 38 43 67 53 45 57 55 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 17. 21. 26. 23. 19. 13. 11. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 85.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 82.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.54 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.87 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.5% 42.9% 25.0% 12.6% 11.6% 13.4% 21.9% 21.9% Logistic: 13.6% 47.8% 29.5% 15.8% 7.4% 25.9% 22.5% 19.6% Bayesian: 4.7% 20.4% 4.2% 3.7% 0.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% Consensus: 11.6% 37.0% 19.6% 10.7% 6.6% 13.6% 15.1% 14.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 48 50 57 61 66 63 59 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 46 53 57 62 59 55 37 28 24 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 48 52 57 54 50 32 23 19 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 39 43 48 45 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT