* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142020 08/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 38 46 55 61 65 66 64 55 50 45 45 48 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 38 46 44 49 54 54 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 41 38 42 46 50 50 36 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 4 5 8 13 18 19 26 28 32 29 35 30 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 1 2 2 -2 -4 0 -1 3 0 3 0 2 0 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 67 79 115 200 227 204 255 206 215 200 216 217 221 227 228 257 307 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.6 30.1 29.9 30.2 30.6 30.3 30.8 32.0 32.1 32.1 32.1 31.7 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 171 171 171 168 172 172 171 171 169 169 169 169 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 162 161 165 171 160 156 161 166 156 160 169 169 169 169 162 152 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -51.2 -51.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 10 9 10 8 10 6 9 6 12 7 14 7 700-500 MB RH 70 72 76 73 70 67 63 61 61 61 61 59 60 55 53 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 28 46 40 36 53 27 35 12 13 -9 -22 -33 -11 6 -21 -24 200 MB DIV 52 71 90 88 62 65 55 56 38 57 11 8 9 1 -32 -11 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 1 4 1 13 4 3 16 3 8 0 7 0 12 7 LAND (KM) 62 107 167 212 147 17 62 304 349 194 45 -106 -199 -323 -456 -536 -572 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.2 19.0 20.4 22.1 24.0 26.0 27.8 29.3 30.5 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.8 84.5 85.1 85.6 86.1 87.1 88.3 89.7 91.1 92.5 93.8 94.6 94.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 46 58 86 114 105 53 37 53 71 42 54 7 7 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 36. 40. 42. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -7. -11. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 36. 34. 25. 20. 15. 15. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 83.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.54 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.96 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 28.5% 15.5% 11.0% 10.5% 13.0% 19.5% 49.5% Logistic: 6.1% 36.7% 19.4% 8.7% 3.8% 15.3% 25.8% 32.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 8.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 0.4% 1.8% Consensus: 4.2% 24.6% 12.1% 6.7% 4.9% 9.9% 15.2% 27.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 38 46 44 49 54 54 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 43 41 46 51 51 50 34 27 25 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 37 35 40 45 45 44 28 21 19 18 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 29 27 32 37 37 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT