* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142020 08/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 51 59 68 69 77 73 70 64 63 60 61 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 51 44 48 50 58 54 51 39 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 44 40 42 49 55 59 57 47 34 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 12 8 3 3 11 6 17 14 25 25 25 24 22 24 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 0 1 0 3 -3 3 1 5 -1 3 -3 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 84 63 70 98 93 117 219 197 219 196 213 206 224 228 238 247 294 SST (C) 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.2 29.6 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.5 31.0 31.3 32.1 32.2 32.1 32.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 172 171 170 171 171 162 172 172 171 171 170 169 168 169 170 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 171 171 169 164 165 151 162 165 164 156 162 165 168 169 170 171 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 10 9 13 9 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 76 75 70 65 62 56 61 60 60 52 46 42 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 9 14 12 11 8 6 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 33 44 54 47 45 54 38 29 50 18 28 -28 -32 -47 -6 -52 200 MB DIV 111 65 84 106 87 68 54 61 49 53 24 26 -9 -7 -13 -33 -18 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 2 1 0 11 0 21 8 20 5 2 4 1 3 11 LAND (KM) 55 45 51 117 192 114 -68 113 355 346 230 110 -30 -117 -188 -313 -493 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.6 19.1 20.8 22.4 24.3 26.1 27.5 28.7 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.6 84.5 85.0 85.4 86.4 87.8 89.0 90.4 91.6 92.7 93.7 94.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 8 10 10 11 11 9 8 7 5 4 4 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 47 52 73 98 90 32 39 68 66 50 52 25 8 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 36. 40. 42. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. -1. 4. 1. -1. -6. -9. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 29. 38. 39. 47. 43. 40. 34. 33. 30. 31. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 82.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.99 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 30.7% 15.5% 10.7% 9.9% 13.4% 28.8% 54.5% Logistic: 5.4% 33.6% 16.4% 6.8% 2.8% 13.7% 24.1% 28.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 8.3% 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 2.4% 3.7% 4.0% Consensus: 4.0% 24.2% 11.6% 5.9% 4.4% 9.8% 18.9% 29.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 38 42 51 44 48 50 58 54 51 39 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 39 48 41 45 47 55 51 48 36 28 25 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 43 36 40 42 50 46 43 31 23 20 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 26 30 32 40 36 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT