* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142020 08/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 53 63 69 77 78 87 83 81 76 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 30 29 41 51 42 39 40 50 46 43 38 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 29 28 36 45 40 36 43 50 56 56 54 42 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 6 11 3 4 9 4 13 10 24 24 26 22 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -4 -5 0 0 2 0 5 1 2 -1 1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 87 101 121 91 73 112 136 261 216 231 175 198 201 225 224 252 254 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.2 29.9 30.4 30.7 30.5 30.7 30.8 31.2 32.2 32.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 160 168 171 170 170 171 172 168 172 171 170 170 169 169 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 160 167 169 166 167 165 166 159 165 166 157 156 155 161 169 170 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 9 9 10 11 10 9 10 8 10 9 12 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 74 76 76 70 69 64 62 61 55 56 51 50 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 8 9 10 11 10 12 11 17 15 13 10 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 38 50 67 58 52 71 44 32 42 13 5 -11 -15 -7 20 200 MB DIV 124 131 140 95 101 117 84 74 51 43 46 14 7 -5 8 -6 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 0 1 -1 3 4 2 16 7 17 4 5 2 5 1 LAND (KM) 302 151 0 -16 -21 99 85 -62 40 265 473 332 171 55 -37 -132 -270 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.7 18.3 19.7 21.5 23.2 24.9 26.4 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.4 81.8 83.2 84.0 84.9 85.9 86.8 88.0 89.8 91.3 92.6 93.5 94.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 9 8 8 9 11 12 11 9 8 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 33 44 48 44 60 73 48 42 65 79 50 58 54 35 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 36. 40. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. 0. -1. 6. 3. -1. -5. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 33. 39. 47. 48. 57. 53. 51. 46. 42. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 80.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.95 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.69 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 20.6% 14.1% 9.9% 8.8% 12.5% 18.6% 52.8% Logistic: 5.7% 45.9% 26.5% 23.6% 11.3% 35.2% 45.7% 60.8% Bayesian: 1.8% 4.6% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.6% 19.2% 48.5% Consensus: 4.1% 23.7% 14.2% 11.3% 6.7% 17.1% 27.8% 54.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 30 29 41 51 42 39 40 50 46 43 38 32 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 27 26 38 48 39 36 37 47 43 40 35 29 25 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 21 20 32 42 33 30 31 41 37 34 29 23 19 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 31 41 32 29 30 40 36 33 28 22 18 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT