* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KYLE AL122020 08/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 38 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 38 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 32 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 41 44 46 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 264 262 263 270 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.3 28.1 27.6 27.0 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 130 140 133 126 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 110 118 112 106 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 45 43 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 21 -1 -11 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 40 12 -25 -22 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 -23 -21 -34 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 529 573 597 656 611 641 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.8 40.2 40.6 40.9 41.2 41.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 59.5 57.4 55.4 53.4 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 15 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 3 22 16 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 21 CX,CY: 20/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -18. -29. -37. -46. -53. -60. -68. -74. -77. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -4. -12. -21. -32. -40. -46. -52. -56. -61. -67. -72. -74. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 39.8 61.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122020 KYLE 08/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122020 KYLE 08/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122020 KYLE 08/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 38 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 37 35 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 32 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT