* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KYLE AL122020 08/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 42 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 45 42 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 42 40 34 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 36 37 42 42 46 37 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 6 6 8 7 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 260 264 262 263 288 293 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.9 26.9 27.4 27.6 27.1 24.8 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 153 125 131 134 128 108 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 129 107 111 112 109 97 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 45 41 41 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 16 13 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 41 19 -5 -21 30 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 31 38 11 -16 -21 -23 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -1 8 -6 -8 -9 -45 -92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 488 503 553 562 612 542 747 1246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.2 39.7 40.2 40.7 41.2 41.9 42.2 42.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.3 62.2 60.1 58.1 56.0 51.9 46.1 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 19 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 56 3 3 12 13 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 19 CX,CY: 18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -7. -18. -27. -34. -42. -48. -54. -60. -66. -68. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -21. -22. -24. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -3. -11. -22. -38. -46. -52. -58. -61. -65. -70. -73. -73. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.2 64.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122020 KYLE 08/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 45 42 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 40 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 37 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT