* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KYLE AL122020 08/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 48 44 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 48 44 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 42 37 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 27 35 44 45 51 50 39 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 12 13 12 8 8 7 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 250 253 266 263 263 279 287 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 26.9 28.2 28.8 26.0 24.9 21.8 23.6 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 126 142 152 116 107 89 99 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 108 122 129 99 92 80 87 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -53.9 -53.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.0 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 2 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 52 48 45 43 45 45 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 22 21 22 21 21 19 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 31 35 35 53 15 11 87 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 55 73 32 58 9 -9 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 27 31 17 5 -25 -54 -104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 373 381 414 408 440 483 389 667 1079 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.1 39.8 40.5 41.2 42.4 43.3 43.4 43.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.1 67.0 64.9 62.6 60.4 56.5 51.9 46.0 40.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 18 17 17 19 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 2 17 61 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -16. -27. -36. -44. -51. -58. -66. -72. -75. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 4. -3. -16. -35. -42. -48. -53. -59. -65. -70. -71. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.4 69.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122020 KYLE 08/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 46 48 44 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 44 40 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 35 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT