* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KYLE AL122020 08/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 46 48 44 34 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 46 48 44 34 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 42 40 35 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 26 32 41 46 50 42 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 9 12 12 12 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 255 243 243 260 265 262 277 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.0 28.6 28.5 25.3 25.0 17.4 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 127 148 147 110 108 76 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 110 127 124 94 92 71 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.6 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 55 52 48 47 47 51 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 21 23 21 24 24 23 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 16 30 43 46 41 35 49 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 42 56 68 52 46 10 19 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 7 10 21 33 -22 -46 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 334 354 378 406 411 453 445 514 900 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.6 39.2 39.9 40.6 41.8 42.7 43.1 42.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.0 69.0 66.9 64.6 62.4 58.1 53.9 49.0 43.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 19 18 17 17 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 4 3 23 49 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -12. -22. -31. -39. -46. -53. -60. -66. -69. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 3. 6. 7. 6. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 11. 13. 9. -1. -17. -23. -29. -34. -40. -46. -51. -53. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.0 71.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122020 KYLE 08/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122020 KYLE 08/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 46 48 44 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 42 44 40 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 35 37 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT