* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 44 46 48 50 53 56 57 58 59 62 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 44 46 48 50 53 56 57 58 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 45 46 47 50 53 56 57 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 17 20 18 16 8 14 11 18 14 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 -3 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 29 21 39 54 59 37 27 358 5 9 357 332 267 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.8 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 151 149 156 152 153 151 151 149 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 152 142 138 140 131 128 124 126 127 133 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 69 69 65 62 54 52 46 44 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -9 -21 -25 -22 -25 -20 -10 2 0 14 18 21 200 MB DIV 47 40 33 47 38 4 9 -9 -12 -5 -21 0 -2 700-850 TADV -3 3 6 3 0 0 5 2 1 0 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 67 162 270 407 546 785 953 1061 1070 1047 1004 926 835 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.8 23.0 25.1 26.4 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.1 64.9 64.7 64.3 63.9 63.3 62.4 61.5 61.3 61.6 62.4 63.9 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 13 12 9 6 3 0 2 5 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 62 65 70 52 35 37 41 53 56 52 40 33 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 65.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.6% 12.6% 8.8% 8.5% 10.4% 13.7% 18.6% Logistic: 4.5% 15.1% 7.1% 5.9% 4.4% 12.6% 25.9% 31.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 6.8% 1.2% Consensus: 4.1% 12.4% 6.8% 5.0% 4.3% 8.1% 15.5% 16.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 44 46 48 50 53 56 57 58 59 62 18HR AGO 40 39 41 41 43 45 47 50 53 54 55 56 59 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 38 40 42 45 48 49 50 51 54 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 34 36 39 42 43 44 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT