* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 39 42 47 51 55 59 61 65 66 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 39 42 47 51 55 59 61 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 41 44 48 52 55 58 61 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 12 11 13 9 11 5 8 7 10 7 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 -1 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 22 22 27 35 47 62 39 45 339 317 348 298 270 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.0 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 164 165 158 152 156 151 144 142 143 145 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 156 156 156 149 138 137 131 122 118 122 124 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 72 69 67 61 56 48 44 42 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 2 3 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 5 -15 -20 -11 -24 -22 -13 -11 -22 5 4 200 MB DIV 32 53 45 25 7 30 5 3 -5 -20 -8 -7 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 0 3 1 -4 5 -1 0 -2 1 -2 LAND (KM) 102 19 70 194 321 610 777 934 1111 1139 1046 999 994 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 18.1 19.0 20.1 21.2 23.7 25.1 26.4 27.9 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.3 64.9 64.1 63.5 62.9 62.3 62.4 63.4 64.6 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 13 10 7 7 5 3 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 87 72 69 73 67 32 37 36 35 32 27 29 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 26. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 65.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.9% 13.0% 9.2% 8.8% 10.6% 13.4% 20.5% Logistic: 2.6% 8.5% 3.9% 2.4% 1.2% 7.9% 18.4% 13.4% Bayesian: 1.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 2.3% 1.3% Consensus: 3.4% 10.2% 5.9% 3.9% 3.4% 6.6% 11.4% 11.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/24/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 39 42 47 51 55 59 61 65 66 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 39 44 48 52 56 58 62 63 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 35 40 44 48 52 54 58 59 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 28 33 37 41 45 47 51 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT