* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 41 45 52 57 62 66 70 70 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 40 45 51 56 62 65 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 39 40 43 48 53 57 61 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 10 6 11 6 9 1 3 6 6 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 0 2 -5 0 3 4 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 30 25 25 43 52 87 80 91 146 105 257 230 249 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 164 161 156 155 158 157 149 143 143 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 157 155 147 142 141 137 126 120 120 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 74 72 69 63 58 49 42 35 32 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 3 10 -11 -9 -4 9 21 21 -3 4 3 200 MB DIV 20 34 60 42 12 35 10 7 19 0 -17 -12 -9 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 4 -2 -1 2 0 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 190 95 0 81 213 463 661 834 957 1024 1041 1005 912 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.2 18.0 19.2 20.4 22.6 24.3 25.8 26.8 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.8 65.9 65.8 65.7 65.2 64.6 64.1 63.5 63.4 64.1 65.3 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 12 10 8 7 4 3 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 85 79 71 72 74 42 32 36 30 27 24 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.3 65.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.07 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.11 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 16.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 13.5% 22.7% Logistic: 2.5% 9.9% 5.2% 2.8% 1.2% 5.6% 15.3% 12.4% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 3.8% 3.2% Consensus: 2.7% 9.2% 5.6% 0.9% 0.4% 5.5% 10.9% 12.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/24/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/24/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 37 40 45 51 56 62 65 69 69 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 38 43 49 54 60 63 67 67 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 34 39 45 50 56 59 63 63 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 28 33 39 44 50 53 57 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT