* ATLANTIC     2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  KAREN       AL122019  09/23/19  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    35    35    34    34    36    40    43    45    46    49    54    58
V (KT) LAND       35    35    35    34    34    36    40    43    45    46    49    54    58
V (KT) LGEM       35    35    35    34    34    34    34    35    36    38    41    45    49
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        21    28    27    23    19    18    16    22    13    11     6     7     8
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -3     0    -1    -2    -1     0     0    -5    -1    -3    -2    -1
SHEAR DIR         44    35    33    31    24    26    22    48    51    66    25    35     7
SST (C)         29.7  29.8  29.9  29.9  29.8  29.8  29.6  29.4  29.4  29.5  29.5  29.2  29.0
POT. INT. (KT)   163   165   167   167   165   165   162   158   158   158   157   152   148
ADJ. POT. INT.   159   160   162   161   159   157   151   146   141   138   134   128   124
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0  -0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.3
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     7     6     6     5     5
700-500 MB RH     69    68    69    69    70    73    75    73    66    62    57    55    52
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    14    13    11    11     9     8     6     5     5     6     6     7
850 MB ENV VOR    10     6     9     3    -1     0    -5   -24   -38   -27   -41   -33   -32
200 MB DIV        23    13    25    16    10    54    31    43    21    17    20    15    11
700-850 TADV      -3    -2    -4    -3    -1    -5     0     5     1     1     1     0    -1
LAND (KM)        289   361   406   315   224    31   126   326   538   680   740   762   771
LAT (DEG N)     13.3  14.0  14.6  15.4  16.1  17.8  19.6  21.4  23.3  24.6  25.3  25.8  26.1
LONG(DEG W)     63.7  64.1  64.5  64.8  65.2  65.7  65.7  65.5  65.3  65.5  66.0  66.5  67.0
STM SPEED (KT)     7     8     8     8     8     9     9    10     8     5     4     3     2
HEAT CONTENT      54    56    60    73    85    73    74    64    35    31    30    28    27

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/  7      CX,CY:  -4/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  664  (MEAN=620)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  20.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  29.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):            7.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  11.  12.  12.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   0.   2.   8.  15.  20.  24.  26.  29.  30.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -3.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   7.   7.   8.   8.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  RI POTENTIAL           0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   0.  -1.  -1.   1.   5.   8.  10.  11.  14.  19.  23.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   35. LAT, LON:   13.3    63.7

      ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN      09/23/19  06 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    0.0    -49.5  to   33.0        0.60           4.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT)       :   23.6     30.1  to    2.3        0.23           0.7
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   65.6      0.0  to  151.8        0.43           1.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :   20.9     36.6  to    2.8        0.46           1.5
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   35.0     22.5  to  137.5        0.33           0.6
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :    0.4      2.9  to   -2.9        0.43           1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :  125.0     27.5  to  139.6        0.87           1.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   17.4    -29.7  to  185.9        0.22           0.2
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :    9.5    100.0  to    0.0        0.90           0.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  124.8    895.4  to  -55.0        0.81           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   5% is   1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  18% is   1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   7% is   3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  10% is   2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  18% is   3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     5.1%   17.8%   11.8%    7.9%    7.4%    9.7%   12.7%   18.2%
    Logistic:     1.2%    3.7%    2.2%    0.6%    0.2%    0.9%    1.5%    4.4%
    Bayesian:     0.1%    0.8%    0.5%    0.0%    0.0%    0.4%    0.2%    0.3%
   Consensus:     2.1%    7.4%    4.8%    2.9%    2.6%    3.7%    4.8%    7.7%
       DTOPS:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    2.0%    3.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN      09/23/19  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN      09/23/2019  06 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  35    35    35    34    34    36    40    43    45    46    49    54    58
 18HR AGO           35    34    34    33    33    35    39    42    44    45    48    53    57
 12HR AGO           35    32    31    30    30    32    36    39    41    42    45    50    54
  6HR AGO           35    29    26    25    25    27    31    34    36    37    40    45    49
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT