* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 29 32 35 39 42 45 46 49 50 51 53 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 29 32 35 39 42 45 46 49 50 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 24 22 20 21 23 26 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 26 22 28 34 25 24 5 12 9 15 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 4 3 6 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 257 252 251 262 283 278 283 239 217 246 237 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.5 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 157 157 155 158 160 170 166 163 162 157 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 147 147 142 141 143 150 140 134 135 135 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 50 49 51 54 56 58 61 61 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -34 -41 -47 -62 -81 -73 -59 -67 -84 -86 -71 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 11 23 28 9 4 21 31 -3 29 1 22 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 1 1 4 4 4 2 4 -1 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 298 274 292 372 407 483 649 897 1026 1006 1000 1045 1121 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.9 22.6 23.9 25.5 27.7 29.2 29.9 30.4 31.5 33.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.6 65.6 66.6 67.5 68.7 69.2 68.7 67.8 67.4 67.0 65.6 63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 10 8 9 10 6 3 6 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 60 80 74 71 60 35 38 33 31 27 21 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -3. -0. 4. 7. 10. 11. 14. 15. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 63.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.44 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.4% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 31 30 28 29 32 35 39 42 45 46 49 50 51 53 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 31 29 30 33 36 40 43 46 47 50 51 52 54 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 27 28 31 34 38 41 44 45 48 49 50 52 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 22 23 26 29 33 36 39 40 43 44 45 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT