* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 31 33 36 40 44 48 51 51 53 53 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 31 33 36 40 44 48 51 51 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 36 34 30 26 24 23 24 26 30 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 30 36 33 29 35 27 26 9 15 7 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 1 4 4 3 2 -3 2 -4 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 255 261 263 258 272 300 287 293 264 249 282 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 154 156 157 158 165 168 170 167 158 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 143 144 145 143 140 144 144 145 144 138 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 49 50 49 52 54 57 60 61 62 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -31 -37 -47 -52 -66 -87 -65 -56 -54 -69 -83 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 9 15 14 21 9 10 21 33 14 26 13 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 2 0 5 8 -1 4 1 4 -1 3 -5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 518 438 390 378 405 495 604 749 913 960 991 1026 987 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.1 23.5 25.0 26.4 27.9 29.1 30.0 31.7 34.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 62.1 63.2 64.3 65.4 67.4 68.6 69.1 69.3 68.8 67.5 65.7 63.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 8 8 7 7 9 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 45 52 65 67 76 33 39 37 33 31 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -4. 0. 4. 8. 11. 11. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.7 61.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 31 33 36 40 44 48 51 51 53 53 18HR AGO 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 31 33 36 40 44 48 51 51 53 53 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 31 29 29 31 34 38 42 46 49 49 51 51 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 25 25 27 30 34 38 42 45 45 47 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT