* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 37 36 35 32 33 33 37 39 43 48 50 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 37 36 35 32 33 33 37 39 43 48 50 51 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 35 31 27 24 23 23 24 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 28 32 33 30 31 18 19 8 11 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 2 2 2 5 1 5 -4 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 255 255 262 266 261 289 294 302 238 273 215 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.5 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 153 154 157 157 160 166 170 170 162 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 141 145 145 146 142 141 144 145 147 144 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 49 50 52 52 52 54 58 60 62 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -19 -25 -30 -41 -51 -64 -65 -51 -51 -69 -67 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 47 29 26 5 26 -4 9 26 10 15 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 7 0 -2 0 -1 -1 1 0 3 1 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 645 532 432 363 336 433 496 642 804 950 1004 999 1001 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.4 21.0 22.4 23.8 25.4 26.9 28.2 29.3 31.3 34.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.8 61.9 63.0 64.2 66.3 68.0 68.9 69.1 68.9 68.0 66.3 63.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 10 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 41 44 52 61 68 68 33 41 36 33 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -7. -7. -3. -1. 3. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.8 59.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.04 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 37 36 35 32 33 33 37 39 43 48 50 51 53 54 18HR AGO 40 39 38 36 35 34 31 32 32 36 38 42 47 49 50 52 53 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 32 29 30 30 34 36 40 45 47 48 50 51 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 25 26 26 30 32 36 41 43 44 46 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT