* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 39 36 33 30 31 31 35 39 43 46 47 49 50 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 39 36 33 30 31 31 35 39 43 46 47 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 38 34 30 26 24 23 25 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 24 30 35 31 35 28 18 11 1 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 263 257 261 268 263 278 310 321 18 290 150 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 153 153 154 154 153 154 158 161 160 158 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 146 145 146 143 138 137 138 138 136 136 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 50 49 49 50 54 52 57 60 61 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -21 -28 -33 -42 -65 -68 -96 -75 -69 -63 -60 -77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 42 40 34 22 5 14 -9 25 38 13 38 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 9 6 -1 -3 3 -1 4 3 0 1 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 823 707 601 508 442 465 602 694 882 1064 1068 1084 1056 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.0 22.5 24.0 25.5 27.3 28.9 30.2 31.9 34.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.9 59.0 60.2 61.4 62.6 64.7 66.3 67.4 67.4 67.0 66.3 64.9 62.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 12 12 10 8 9 8 9 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 55 44 42 49 57 40 29 35 30 25 22 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -9. -9. -5. -1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.6 57.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.8% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.3% 1.7% 1.8% 0.6% 1.7% 1.5% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.7% 3.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 40 39 36 33 30 31 31 35 39 43 46 47 49 50 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 37 34 31 28 29 29 33 37 41 44 45 47 48 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 31 28 25 26 26 30 34 38 41 42 44 45 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 26 23 20 21 21 25 29 33 36 37 39 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT