* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 28 28 30 33 36 41 46 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 28 28 30 33 36 41 46 48 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 29 26 23 20 19 20 22 25 30 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 21 22 23 34 31 32 16 13 5 1 10 14 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 7 5 2 2 2 2 4 1 -5 0 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 257 267 268 256 264 266 271 296 302 18 184 154 213 221 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 150 153 154 152 153 154 158 162 161 157 157 150 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 142 146 147 146 141 137 135 138 141 139 134 131 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 50 49 51 52 52 55 54 57 59 61 62 59 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 -6 -18 -25 -44 -70 -62 -84 -65 -62 -63 -52 -60 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 43 46 38 36 23 3 20 0 17 42 3 32 17 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 7 5 9 6 -4 2 0 4 6 2 9 -2 5 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 934 912 812 676 554 420 441 599 687 834 1042 1034 1083 1025 899 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.2 19.9 21.1 22.4 24.2 25.4 26.9 28.8 30.6 32.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.8 58.0 59.3 60.7 63.0 65.2 66.7 67.3 67.6 67.4 66.4 64.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 15 13 13 11 9 7 8 9 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 53 60 53 42 53 60 39 29 36 32 24 23 31 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -9. -9. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -2. 1. 6. 11. 13. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 55.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.9% 10.5% 8.0% 7.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 5.4% 3.9% 4.1% 1.0% 2.3% 1.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.8% 4.9% 4.0% 2.7% 3.7% 0.4% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 28 28 30 33 36 41 46 48 50 51 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 32 31 29 27 27 29 32 35 40 45 47 49 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 29 27 25 25 27 30 33 38 43 45 47 48 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 21 19 19 21 24 27 32 37 39 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT