* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 34 33 35 33 35 36 42 46 49 51 53 55 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 34 33 35 33 35 36 42 46 49 51 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 31 29 27 25 22 21 21 22 25 30 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 12 21 21 23 30 24 27 13 12 6 7 17 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 6 1 3 -3 -3 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 269 256 271 272 260 271 268 288 282 298 188 222 208 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 148 150 151 153 154 153 154 158 163 157 155 155 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 147 145 145 143 144 141 136 135 138 145 136 129 127 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 51 49 52 52 53 55 56 56 60 62 63 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 16 -2 -13 -24 -41 -48 -66 -71 -63 -58 -57 -62 -49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 45 35 45 32 33 7 27 -3 16 15 21 17 23 22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 4 6 6 0 2 0 1 4 10 4 3 3 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 924 872 856 787 644 428 336 422 543 666 818 1048 1024 1046 1016 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.7 21.0 22.3 24.0 25.4 26.8 28.8 31.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.1 55.5 56.9 58.3 59.6 61.9 64.2 66.2 67.4 67.9 67.8 67.2 66.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 14 13 12 12 11 8 7 9 12 12 9 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 38 50 59 53 47 62 66 59 29 36 31 22 22 31 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -0. -2. -0. 1. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 54.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.4% 9.5% 7.0% 0.0% 9.1% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.0% 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.5% 4.0% 3.0% 0.1% 3.4% 3.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 33 33 34 33 35 33 35 36 42 46 49 51 53 55 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 34 33 35 33 35 36 42 46 49 51 53 55 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 31 33 31 33 34 40 44 47 49 51 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 25 27 25 27 28 34 38 41 43 45 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT