* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 42 43 45 45 45 45 47 49 54 57 58 61 63 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 42 43 45 45 45 45 47 49 54 57 58 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 41 41 40 38 35 33 32 33 37 43 49 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 7 10 22 22 26 24 21 13 8 6 6 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 4 2 4 0 4 0 1 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 292 296 286 268 277 259 273 255 264 234 279 179 150 189 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 144 146 146 147 151 154 153 155 155 163 165 166 161 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 144 145 143 142 144 143 140 140 137 141 142 145 138 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 56 53 53 53 54 53 55 57 55 56 56 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 36 26 13 -12 -24 -44 -52 -70 -72 -70 -60 -73 -83 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 25 35 42 46 41 36 14 18 -4 24 6 -1 -10 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 6 10 7 11 0 0 -3 0 3 7 3 6 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1008 1020 941 883 855 675 442 348 402 527 663 827 958 1013 909 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.2 18.5 19.8 21.0 22.1 23.6 25.4 27.0 28.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.4 52.6 53.9 55.3 56.6 59.3 61.8 64.0 65.6 67.0 68.0 68.3 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 10 9 7 7 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 35 41 36 46 49 50 67 67 58 28 32 32 31 23 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 9. 14. 17. 18. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.4 51.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 16.2% 11.5% 8.7% 7.9% 10.4% 11.7% 15.9% Logistic: 1.7% 2.8% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 4.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.7% 5.1% 3.2% 2.7% 3.7% 4.0% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 42 42 43 45 45 45 45 47 49 54 57 58 61 63 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 41 42 44 44 44 44 46 48 53 56 57 60 62 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 38 40 40 40 40 42 44 49 52 53 56 58 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 33 33 33 33 35 37 42 45 46 49 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT