* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 48 49 50 48 46 46 46 48 51 54 58 59 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 48 49 50 48 46 46 46 48 51 54 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 50 51 49 47 43 40 38 38 40 45 51 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 7 11 9 22 21 31 25 29 16 18 1 9 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 0 2 -1 1 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 261 293 295 279 276 273 266 260 253 259 249 13 241 171 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 144 146 142 150 154 154 153 154 161 165 167 161 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 140 142 144 139 144 146 142 139 136 141 142 142 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 51 54 52 54 54 52 53 53 55 58 56 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 36 30 22 -6 -23 -34 -62 -65 -83 -89 -80 -103 -90 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 12 22 20 25 48 33 33 18 16 9 4 31 11 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 5 7 9 10 8 -3 0 -1 0 6 0 10 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1041 1062 1067 984 921 834 593 435 440 563 635 778 964 1020 977 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 18.1 19.5 20.9 22.3 23.7 25.0 26.5 28.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.2 52.4 53.7 55.0 57.8 60.2 62.6 64.8 66.5 67.6 68.1 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 11 10 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 21 30 36 35 54 44 55 63 43 29 33 32 33 24 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 8. 6. 6. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.2 50.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 19.7% 14.0% 10.8% 9.4% 11.9% 13.1% 17.2% Logistic: 5.8% 10.9% 10.2% 3.9% 0.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 3.9% 4.3% 8.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 11.6% 10.8% 5.0% 3.4% 5.5% 5.2% 6.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/13/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 47 48 48 49 50 48 46 46 46 48 51 54 58 59 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 44 45 46 44 42 42 42 44 47 50 54 55 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 39 40 41 39 37 37 37 39 42 45 49 50 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 31 32 33 31 29 29 29 31 34 37 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT