* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 49 53 54 55 55 53 52 52 52 55 58 62 64 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 49 53 54 55 55 53 52 52 52 55 58 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 54 58 58 55 51 48 45 43 44 48 55 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 7 9 10 19 24 28 25 24 21 12 9 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 6 8 7 0 3 0 1 -3 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 60 352 311 296 278 273 258 272 245 257 222 259 170 181 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.8 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 143 144 147 145 151 154 154 155 155 161 164 168 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 140 142 144 145 140 145 145 141 139 138 141 140 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 54 54 53 53 55 55 54 55 57 59 61 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 35 31 27 6 -22 -30 -51 -61 -67 -83 -75 -87 -93 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -1 -2 11 16 44 42 28 16 9 0 12 4 8 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 5 8 9 5 1 1 0 2 4 1 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1026 1026 1032 1052 959 852 707 464 399 458 514 630 833 1002 991 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 17.1 18.4 19.6 21.3 22.6 23.7 25.2 27.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.8 51.0 52.3 53.7 56.5 59.0 61.5 63.6 65.6 67.4 68.4 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 15 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 20 31 41 45 51 47 66 55 64 29 32 32 34 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 12. 12. 15. 18. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.4 48.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.0% 13.6% 10.7% 9.2% 12.3% 14.1% 19.6% Logistic: 4.4% 9.8% 7.2% 2.4% 0.5% 3.4% 2.8% 1.6% Bayesian: 3.9% 12.1% 10.3% 0.2% 0.3% 5.2% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.8% 13.6% 10.4% 4.5% 3.3% 7.0% 6.0% 7.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 48 49 53 54 55 55 53 52 52 52 55 58 62 64 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 45 49 50 51 51 49 48 48 48 51 54 58 60 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 43 44 45 45 43 42 42 42 45 48 52 54 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 35 36 37 37 35 34 34 34 37 40 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT