* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 35 39 42 43 44 42 41 41 41 44 47 50 54 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 35 39 42 43 44 42 41 41 41 44 47 50 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 37 37 36 34 32 30 29 29 30 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 4 7 8 21 19 29 21 28 20 21 9 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 6 3 2 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 41 6 353 313 291 273 272 268 260 246 233 229 180 213 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.8 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 140 141 143 146 144 151 154 154 153 154 161 164 168 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 140 141 143 144 140 147 147 142 139 137 140 140 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 54 54 56 55 56 56 55 56 55 55 56 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 31 32 28 15 -6 -24 -33 -65 -61 -84 -86 -99 -123 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -25 -2 0 20 34 58 34 26 25 21 0 0 15 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 3 7 3 13 -3 4 0 3 2 -1 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1032 1004 991 1005 1032 891 838 586 390 395 531 632 788 928 1062 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.5 17.7 19.1 20.5 21.9 23.3 24.9 26.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.5 49.8 51.1 52.5 55.2 57.8 60.2 62.8 64.9 66.4 67.4 67.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 8 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 22 19 21 34 36 50 46 61 71 49 29 33 32 35 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 12. 11. 11. 11. 14. 17. 20. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 47.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 20.3% 14.8% 12.0% 10.7% 12.6% 12.5% 16.8% Logistic: 2.1% 6.9% 5.4% 2.0% 0.4% 3.0% 1.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.9% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 9.7% 7.8% 4.7% 3.7% 5.5% 4.6% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/13/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 35 39 42 43 44 42 41 41 41 44 47 50 54 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 38 41 42 43 41 40 40 40 43 46 49 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 33 36 37 38 36 35 35 35 38 41 44 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 28 29 30 28 27 27 27 30 33 36 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT