* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 35 40 46 49 50 50 50 50 50 51 52 55 58 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 35 40 46 49 50 50 50 50 50 51 52 55 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 38 41 41 39 37 35 33 32 33 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 5 5 5 5 8 11 18 24 25 24 20 21 11 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 6 6 6 3 2 -1 1 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 70 35 9 356 310 268 274 252 265 240 244 210 201 177 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.7 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 138 139 141 144 147 144 151 154 153 155 155 163 165 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 137 138 139 143 144 139 146 145 142 140 139 143 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 54 56 56 56 54 55 55 53 52 51 51 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 34 28 26 26 21 10 -16 -32 -53 -58 -71 -81 -88 -79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -20 -26 -5 -3 25 50 36 40 21 24 -2 -4 5 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -2 -2 6 7 11 5 6 3 3 1 2 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1078 1033 1006 1003 1004 989 866 782 522 366 363 510 675 834 982 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 15.6 16.9 18.1 19.5 20.7 21.7 23.2 25.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.4 48.6 49.8 50.9 53.3 56.0 58.3 60.9 63.3 65.3 66.6 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 13 14 13 14 13 12 10 9 10 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 21 19 20 41 41 52 45 63 76 56 29 34 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 21. 22. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 46.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.2% 11.9% 9.4% 8.0% 10.9% 12.0% 19.3% Logistic: 1.6% 5.6% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 3.0% 3.9% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 6.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 9.3% 5.9% 3.5% 2.8% 4.9% 5.3% 7.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 35 40 46 49 50 50 50 50 50 51 52 55 58 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 39 45 48 49 49 49 49 49 50 51 54 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 40 43 44 44 44 44 44 45 46 49 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 32 35 36 36 36 36 36 37 38 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT