* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 47 49 49 51 51 52 53 56 59 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 47 49 49 51 51 52 53 56 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 39 37 36 34 33 33 35 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 2 3 3 7 8 22 19 26 16 21 11 16 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 2 7 4 3 5 0 1 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 126 114 334 326 289 272 272 269 261 246 237 202 215 161 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 137 139 142 145 145 146 151 154 154 155 160 164 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 133 136 138 141 142 140 140 144 145 141 140 143 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 53 53 56 55 56 56 55 54 54 52 51 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 8 7 7 6 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 36 26 20 20 21 14 -16 -26 -39 -56 -61 -79 -86 -63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -21 -33 -40 -21 15 52 40 38 35 24 -6 12 -10 35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 2 6 7 11 4 10 3 7 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1169 1114 1062 1038 1025 1052 923 870 665 432 345 456 587 735 904 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 15.0 16.3 17.6 18.7 19.8 21.1 22.6 24.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.2 47.4 48.5 49.7 52.2 54.6 57.0 59.4 61.9 64.2 66.0 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 25 28 22 19 29 35 49 49 51 68 58 35 31 31 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 22. 23. 26. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 45.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.8% 12.4% 9.7% 8.4% 11.1% 12.4% 19.9% Logistic: 2.2% 8.2% 5.2% 1.2% 0.5% 4.1% 8.1% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 10.4% 6.4% 3.7% 3.0% 5.3% 7.1% 8.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 47 49 49 51 51 52 53 56 59 62 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 37 43 45 47 47 49 49 50 51 54 57 60 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 39 41 43 43 45 45 46 47 50 53 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 32 34 36 36 38 38 39 40 43 46 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT