* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 46 50 51 52 50 52 52 55 57 61 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 46 50 51 52 50 52 52 55 57 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 40 40 38 36 34 33 34 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 2 3 5 11 12 21 23 25 17 7 13 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 2 2 4 5 7 4 4 -1 2 -2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 115 133 148 313 287 284 258 269 252 268 245 269 170 154 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 132 135 138 141 144 145 142 151 154 154 154 155 163 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 131 133 136 139 142 142 137 144 146 142 140 138 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 57 56 54 55 56 54 54 54 54 52 52 53 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 35 34 26 18 21 17 2 -21 -35 -60 -73 -77 -78 -71 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -10 -24 -30 -44 -17 7 49 45 28 5 -11 -7 13 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 4 8 11 0 3 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1247 1184 1123 1071 1036 1035 977 873 781 542 389 416 568 648 783 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.5 15.7 16.9 18.3 19.5 20.7 22.1 23.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.9 46.2 47.4 48.6 50.9 53.5 55.9 58.3 60.7 63.0 64.9 66.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 25 27 21 20 41 41 54 45 61 65 41 29 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -15. -18. -19. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 20. 21. 22. 20. 22. 22. 25. 27. 31. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 43.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 16.5% 12.1% 9.4% 8.0% 10.9% 12.1% 20.7% Logistic: 5.4% 19.6% 14.6% 5.1% 2.8% 11.5% 17.5% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 12.3% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.0% 1.1% 1.0% Consensus: 3.6% 16.1% 9.9% 4.9% 3.6% 8.1% 10.2% 11.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 39 46 50 51 52 50 52 52 55 57 61 64 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 37 44 48 49 50 48 50 50 53 55 59 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 40 44 45 46 44 46 46 49 51 55 58 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 33 37 38 39 37 39 39 42 44 48 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT