* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 49 54 53 55 52 53 54 56 60 63 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 49 54 53 55 52 53 54 56 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 37 39 40 40 39 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 10 11 11 7 6 9 12 11 21 21 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 4 4 6 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 107 97 109 119 310 296 282 258 279 252 266 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 133 131 133 135 139 144 143 148 153 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 131 132 130 132 134 137 140 138 142 145 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 62 61 56 56 55 56 57 56 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 34 33 33 26 27 18 3 -17 -23 -41 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 12 -5 -9 -12 -42 -4 29 79 48 45 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 5 9 14 1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1430 1341 1261 1199 1139 1056 1053 1025 904 782 523 360 389 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.5 14.6 15.9 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.3 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.9 42.1 43.4 44.5 45.7 48.2 50.7 53.1 55.7 58.3 60.8 63.0 65.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 18 22 25 22 18 36 37 58 44 48 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 23. 25. 22. 23. 24. 26. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 40.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 13.6% 10.0% 7.4% 5.9% 9.5% 10.8% 20.4% Logistic: 2.5% 11.0% 5.0% 1.5% 1.1% 5.6% 14.9% 20.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 13.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 2.1% 12.8% 5.3% 3.0% 2.4% 5.2% 8.6% 13.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 49 54 53 55 52 53 54 56 60 63 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 48 53 52 54 51 52 53 55 59 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 38 44 49 48 50 47 48 49 51 55 58 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 37 42 41 43 40 41 42 44 48 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT