* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 49 56 57 58 56 56 58 60 64 67 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 49 56 57 58 56 56 58 60 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 36 39 41 42 41 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 11 9 1 6 11 8 20 22 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 3 3 4 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 97 92 82 90 150 276 265 263 261 262 259 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 135 132 134 134 136 140 144 144 148 151 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 135 132 133 133 136 139 142 141 143 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 62 61 58 55 55 54 53 54 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 27 27 27 23 23 23 14 -6 -10 -25 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 7 0 -22 -23 -38 -30 6 53 71 32 19 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 0 -1 2 5 15 14 -4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1526 1421 1323 1253 1196 1072 1011 1037 860 800 560 333 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 25 24 19 22 34 17 35 37 44 46 44 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 26. 27. 28. 26. 26. 28. 30. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 39.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 14.3% 10.4% 7.8% 6.2% 9.7% 10.9% 20.1% Logistic: 1.8% 6.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.4% 4.2% 14.8% 20.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 18.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 13.1% 4.7% 2.8% 2.2% 5.1% 8.7% 13.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 49 56 57 58 56 56 58 60 64 67 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 48 55 56 57 55 55 57 59 63 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 38 44 51 52 53 51 51 53 55 59 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 37 44 45 46 44 44 46 48 52 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT